I can’t believe it has been one year since I started this website. I still love the interactive seed trends but hope to revamp the visualizations eventually. As for the TG Index (TGX among friends), it remains useful for choosing the winner of the tournament but less useful for selecting individual matchups.
Before we get to March, I’d love to have some plausible deniability – but the reverse. I have some predictions that I think will serve me well in March, so I will write them down here, not just for future Teddy to utilize, but to put my money where my mouth is when I claim that I truly can predict March Madness better than anyone else.
First lies the big question: who will win March Madness 2026? I strongly believe it will be one of Arizona, Michigan, UConn, or Michigan State. My reasoning is that these teams have strong guard play, excellent coaching staff, and experience. Duke is an outside possibility, but I don’t love teams whose best player is a freshman in this modern era. As for Iowa State, I think they also have a shot. However, I always believe it is safer to bet on a team (figuratively!) that has won it before. Time and time again players at these basketball institutions admit to looking down at the school name or logo on their jersey, and gaining additional confidence and self belief.
I also want to include two teams that I predicted to go on a run last year, failed to do so, but have returned their coach and core players. The first of which is, in fact, Iowa State. I predicted the Cyclones to reach the Elite 8 last year. The second is Gonzaga, a perennial S16+ team which unfortunately ran into a strong Houston team in the Round of 32, coming short of my Final 4 prediction. The reason I am naming Iowa State and Gonzaga is because I have a funny knack of predicting runs by teams a year too early. This year I decided I would identify the two best candidates to reach the E8 based on this hypothesis. (I also predicted a VCU E8 run in 2025, but am not shouting it out because Ryan Odom left to coach Virginia. Does this mean Virginia will go on a deep run? Or does my curse still work and VCU will go on a run anyway? Let’s find out.)
Lastly, I had a few ad hoc predictions. Feel free to use or disregard.
Arizona – S16 minimum
Houston – R32 minimum
Gonzaga – R32 minimum
Iowa – R32 minimum (probably)
—
Illinois – E8 maximum
Tennessee – E8 maximum
Kansas – Don’t trust too much; wouldn’t be shocked to see R32 exit
Virginia – R32 maximum (oh I guess I forgot about my Ryan Odom tangent)
St Johns – R32 maximum (probably)
Louisville – Might lose first game
teddygeary 
Leave a comment